Modeling conditional distributions in time series has attracted increasing attention in economics and finance. We develop a new class of generalized Cramer–von Mises (GCM) specification tests for time series conditional distribution models using a novel approach, which embeds the empirical...

We develop a nonparametric regression-based goodness-of-fit test for multifactor continuous-time Markov models using the conditional characteristic function, which often has a convenient closed-form or can be approximated accurately for many popular continuous-time Markov models in economics...

Modeling conditional distributions in time series has attracted increasing attention in economics and finance. We develop a new class of generalized Cramer-von Mises (GCM) specification tests for time series conditional distribution models using a novel approach, which embeds the empirical...

We propose two nonparametric transition density-based speciþcation tests for continuous-time diffusion models. In contrast to marginal density as used in the literature, transition density can capture the full dynamics of a diffusion process, and in particular, can distinguish processes with...

We propose two nonparametric transition density-based speciþcation tests for continuous-time diffusion models. In contrast to marginal density as used in the literature, transition density can capture the full dynamics of a diffusion process, and in particular, can distinguish processes with...

Using a generalized cross-spectral approach, we propose a model-free omnibus statistical procedure to check whether the direction of changes in an economic variable is predictable using the history of its past changes. A class of separate inference procedures are also given to gauge possible...

We propose two nonparametric transition density-based speciÞcation tests for continuous-time diffusion models. In contrast to marginal density as used in the literature, transition density can capture the full dynamics of a diffusion process, and in particular, can distinguish processes with...

We develop a nonparametric regression-based goodness-of-fit test for multifactor continuous-time Markov models using the conditional characteristic function, which often has a convenient closed-form or can be approximated accurately for many popular continuous-time Markov models in economics and...

Multivariate continuous-time models have been playing important roles in finance and economics. We develop an omnibus specification test for multivariate continuous-time models using the conditional characteristic function, which often has a convenient closed form or can be accurately...

The current large empirical literature on interest rate modeling typically focuses on the in-sample performance and ignores the out-of-sample performance of existing models. We fill the gap in this literature by providing probably the first comprehensive empirical study (to our knowledge) of the...