This study investigates the nature of the revision process of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970/71 through 2002/03 marketing years. Nordhaus' framework for testing the efficiency of fixed-event forecasts is used. In this framework, efficiency is based on independence of...

This study suggests that confidence intervals for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices may be improved if they are estimated using an empirical approach. Empirical confidence intervals are calculated following Williams and Goodman's (1971) method and use historical forecast errors...

Few farmers utilize futures and options markets to price their crops despite significant educational efforts. This study seeks to analyze producer hedging behavior within the framework of the overall marketing behavior. Producer marketing behavior is modeled as a simultaneous choice between cash...

The economic value of public situation and outlook information has long been a subject of debate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic value of USDA reports in hog and cattle markets. The investigation is based on event study analysis, with the "events" consisting of the...

The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) price forecasts are published in the form of an interval, but typically analyzed as point estimates. Thus, all information about uncertainty imbedded in the forecast is ignored. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy...