Using a Factor Structural Vector Autoregressive (FSVAR) model and monthly GDP growth forecasts during 1995-2003, we find that Indian economy responds largely to domestic and Asian common shocks, and much less to shocks the from the West. However, when we exclude the Asian crisis period from our...

Using monthly GDP forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc. for 18 developed countries reported over 24 different forecast horizons during 1989-2004, we find that the survey forecasts do not have much value when the horizon goes beyond 18 months. Using two alternative approaches to measure the...

Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the forecast data used are multi-dimensional—18 countries, 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year...