This paper overviews different exit strategies for the U.S. from the debt-overhang, and analyses their implications for emerging markets and global stability. These strategies are discussed in the context of the debates about secular-stagnation versus debt-overhang, the fiscal theory of the...

Using the trilemma indexes developed by Aizenman et al. (2010) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma - monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness - we examine how policy configurations affect macroeconomic...

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy...

We develop a new set of indexes of exchange rate stability, monetary policy independence, and financial market openness as the metrics for the trilemma hypothesis. In our exploration, we take a different and more nuanced approach than the previous indexes developed by Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito...

We present a theoretical framework for policy making based on the "impossible trinity" or the "trilemma" hypothesis. A simple optimization model shows that placing more weight in terms of preference for each of the three open macroeconomic policies - exchange rate stability, financial market...

We evaluate the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) and recent structural changes in the patterns of hoarding international reserves (IR). We confirm that the determinants of IR hoarding evolve with developments in the global economy. During the pre-GFC period of 1999-2006, gross saving...

Using data from more than 6,000 manufacturing firms in India for 1996–2008, we investigate the impact of financial constraints on the exporting behavior of Indian manufacturing firms while also focusing on the link between exchange rate movement and exports. We find that there is a strong...

Conventional logic suggests that lowering the policy interest rate will stimulate consumption and investment while discouraging people from saving, but low interest rates may also prompt people to increase their saving to compensate for the low rate of return. Using data on 135 countries from...

This paper extends our previous paper (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito 2008) and explores some of the unexplored questions. First, we examine the channels through which the trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility. Secondly, we investigate how trilemma policy configurations affect the...

Using the indexes we developed (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito, 2008) to measure the degree of the three policy choices countries make with respect to the trilemma: exchange rate stability, monetary independence, and capital account openness, we investigate the normative questions pertaining to the...