Using monthly data over 1978:01-1996:12 we examine the usefulness of the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) in predicting aggregate consumption expenditure and its components. Bivariate causality tests in a linear model show the indicator value of ICS in predicting durables consumption. We...

We have studied the comparative performance of a number of interest rate spreads as predictors of the German inflation and business cycle in the post Bretton Woods era. The two-regime Markov switch model that we used as a nonlinear filter allows the dynamic behavior of the economy to vary...

Using monthly data over 1978:01-1996:12 we examine the usefulness of the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) in predicting aggregate consumption expenditure and its components. Bivariate causality tests in a linear model show the indicator value of ICS in predicting durables consumption. We...