The existing literature finds that information not captured by traditional term structure factors helps predict excess bond returns. When estimating no-arbitrage affine term structure models, aligning in-sample and out-of-sample objective functions results in term structure factors that capture...

We propose a no-arbitrage term structure model with a Taylor rule and two macroeconomic variables, real activity growth and inflation, that each contain long-run and short-run components. Variance decompositions indicate that the impact of macroeconomic variables on the term structure differs...

We propose no-arbitrage term structure models in which the volatility factors followGARCH processes. The models’ tractability is similar to that of canonical affine termstructure models, but they capture the conditional variances of yields much more accurately.We estimate a model with one...

This paper investigates the importance of market incompleteness by comparing the rates of risk aversion estimated from complete and incomplete markets environments. For the incomplete-markets case, we use consumption data for the 50 US states. We find that the rate of risk aversion under the...

This paper investigates the importance of idiosyncratic consumption risk for the cross-sectional variation in average returns on stocks and bonds. If idiosyncratic consumption risk is not priced, the only pricing factor in a multiperiod economy is the rate of aggregate consumption growth. We...

This paper investigates the importance of market incompleteness by comparing the rates of risk aversion estimated from complete and incomplete markets environments. For the incomplete-markets case, we use consumption data for 50 U.S. states. While the use of state-level data is conceptually...

This paper investigates the importance of market incompleteness by comparing the rates of risk aversion estimated from complete and incomplete markets environments. For the incomplete-markets case, we use consumption data for 50 U.S. states. While the use of state-level data is conceptually...

Equity options display a strong factor structure. The first principal components of the equity volatility levels, skews, and term structures explain a substantial fraction of the cross-sectional variation. Furthermore, these principal components are highly correlated with the S&P500 index option...

The extended Kalman filter, which linearizes the relationship between security prices and state variables, is widely used in fixed income applications. We investigate if the unscented Kalman filter should be used to capture nonlinearities, and compare the performance of the Kalman filter to that...

The extended Kalman filter, which linearizes the relationship between security prices and state variables, is widely used in fixed income applications. We investigate if the unscented Kalman filter should be used to capture nonlinearities, and compare the performance of the Kalman filter to that...