This study provides empirical support for theoretical models that allow for time-varying rare disaster risk. Using a database of 447 international political crises during the period 1918-2006, we create a crisis index that shows substantial variation over time. Changes in this crisis index, our...

Using a database of 440 international political crises over the period 1918-2002, we find that international crises reduce world market stock returns by approximately four percent per annum. Crises cause large negative stock market reactions in their first month, lower than average returns...

This study provides empirical support for recent theoretical models that allow for time-varying rare disaster risk. Using a unique database of 447 international political crises during the period 1918–2006, we create a crisis index that shows substantial variation over time. We show that...