We show that, in a frictionless and efficient market, an asset pricing model that better describes investors' behavior should better forecast stock index returns. We propose a dividend model that predicts, out-of-sample, 31.3% of the variation in annual dividend growth rates (1976-2015)....

We measure the aggregate return to all equity investors in various funding rounds of a venture company with the founders' investments valued at their first-round pre-money valuations. We examine 17,242 ventures that had their first funding rounds during 1980 and 2006 and follow them till their...