We assess the effect of fiscal rules on sovereign bond yields over the short and medium-term, for 34 advanced countries and 21 emerging market economies, over the period 1980-2016. Our results, based on impulse response functions, show that the dynamic impact of fiscal rules on bond yields is...

We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The "need" to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the...

This paper reviews the current discussions, methods, and practices surrounding the estimation of reasonable proxies for the underlying fiscal position, a useful anchor for fiscal policy. An empirical application to developing Asian economies is carried out. There is no one-size fits all type of...

We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries using panel unit root and cointegration analyses. Results show: no cointegration (no sustainability) between revenues and expenditures; improvement of the primary balances after worsening debt ratios; causality from government...

We explore the impact of major labor and product market reforms on current account dynamics using a new “narrative” database of major changes in employment protection for regular workers and product market regulation for non-manufacturing industries covering 26 advanced economies over the...

We study a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization, between 1870 and 1914, regarding the fiscal consequences of deflation. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1 percent fall in the price level leads to an increase in the debt ratio of...

This paper reviews the current discussions, methods, and practices surrounding the estimation of reasonable proxies for the underlying fiscal position, a useful anchor for fiscal policy. An empirical application to developing Asian economies is carried out. There is no one-size fits all type of...

This paper examines the impact of natural disasters on fiscal and external sustainability across 134 economies from 1980 to 2023. We adopt a two-step approach: first, we estimate country-specific, time-varying sustainability coefficients; second, we assess their determinants using Weighted Least...

This paper examines the impact of current account balances on energy, headline, and core inflation across developed and developing economies from 1980 to 2023. Using Panel OLS fixed effects, Panel-IV 2SLS and Panel Vector Autoregressive models, we find that an improvement in the current account...

Widening income disparities, higher corruption and larger informality in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) including Latin America, all with pressing and mounting fiscal problems, have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the key factors determining the occurrence...