Competition is intense among rival technologies, and success depends on predicting their future trajectory of performance. To resolve this challenge, managers often follow popular heuristics, generalizations, or "laws" such as Moore's law. We propose a model, Step And Wait (SAW), for predicting...

The Bass model has been a standard for analyzing and predicting the market penetration of new products. We demonstrate the insights to be gained and predictive performance of functional data analysis (FDA), a new class of nonparametric techniques that has shown impressive results within the...