We design an adaptive framework for the detection of illegal trading behavior. Its keycomponent is an extension of a pattern recognition tool, originating from the field of signalprocessing and adapted to modern electronic systems of securities trading. The new methodcombines the flexibility of...

The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and Frey (2000) where we permit a time-varying...

While economic forecasting is ubiquitous within the industry, its role in the trading process has received little attention in the literature. We examine how economist forecasts are related to trading activity in the OTC treasury bond market at the participant level. Consistent with models of...