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by higher inflation. In addition, manufacturing firms have an unusually high stock of orders, which will buffer lower … 2023 (winter forecast: 3.3 percent). At 5.8 percent, inflation is likely to be higher this year than ever before in … reunified Germany. Even if commodity prices stop rising and supply bottlenecks gradually ease, inflation is still likely to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272065
I empirically analyze the dynamics of business investment following normal recessions (declines in business investment that are not associated with banking crises) and banking crises. Using a panel of 16 advanced economies, I find evidence for significant non-linear trend reversion or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010518645
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Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials und der Produktionslücke einer Volkswirtschaft sind von großer Bedeutung für die Wirtschaftspolitik. Sie spielen eine wesentliche Rolle für den Europäischen Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt und für die im Grundgesetz verankerte Schuldenbremse. In der...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011985218
Housing crises usually go hand in hand with a long lasting recession and a considerable loss in output. We first re-examine the effects of a housing crises on the business cycle based on historical crises. Then we estimate the international spill-over-effects if several huge industrial countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265229
laufenden Jahr fällt das Minus mit 0,3 Prozent etwas niedriger aus als im Herbst erwartet (-0,5 Prozent). Die Inflation ist … inflation in the last years. As inflation is falling noticeably, real disposable income will rise again this year for the first …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014506985
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008666133
This paper provides statistical evidence suggesting that in industrial countries, recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises dampen output far more than ordinary recessions. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounceback of the level of output in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003932600
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008826283
Die spürbare Dämpfung der Konjunktur in den Vereinigten Staaten infolge der Immobilienmarktkrise dürfte bis ins Jahr … Konjunktur aufgrund der starken Entwicklung während des vergangenen Sommerhalbjahres wahrscheinlich weniger in Mitleidenschaft …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003685273