This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Summarising the findings of DG ECFIN's fellowship programme on the future of EMUDG ECFIN has now published a series of Economic Papers written by distinguished scholars in the context of its Fellowship Initiative on "The future of EMU & Economic growth perspectives for Europe". This policy brief...