No consensus has yet been reached on how to analyse uncertainty in economic evaluation studies where individual patient data are available for costs and health effects. This paper summarises the available results regarding the analysis of uncertainty on the cost-effectiveness plane and argues...

We study the choice of drug for the treatment of high blood pressure (hypertension) in Sweden between 1988-1994. During this time period calcium antagonists and ACE-inhibitors increased their market shares at the expense of the older drugs diuretics and beta-blockers. We use a prescription micro...

Experiments in psychology, where subjects estimate confidence intervals to a series of factual questions, have shown that individuals report far too narrow intervals. This has been interpreted as evidence of overconfidence in the preciseness of knowledge, a potentially serious violation of the...