This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different...

This article presents out-of-sample inflation forecasting results based on relative price variability and skewness. It is demonstrated that forecasts on long horizons of 1.5-2 years are significantly improved if the forecast equation is augmented with skewness.

This paper tests the weak separability of the assets in the Bank of England's household-sector Divisia index from 1977Q1 to 2000Q4. The study is based on a revealed preference framework and uses a nonparametric procedure that jointly tests necessary and sufficient conditions for weak...

Federal Reserve programs during the recent financial crisis sought to provide liquidity to individual firms or industries. An interesting additional question is whether the aggregate amount of liquidity in the economy was appropriate before and during the recent financial crisis.

The authors introduce a comprehensive revision of the Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, referred to as the Monetary Services Indexes (MSI). These revised MSI are available at five levels of aggregation, including a new broad...

This paper uses several methods to study the interrelationship among Divisia monetary aggregates, prices, and income, allowing for nonstationary, nonlinearities, asymmetries, and time-varying relationships among the series. We propose a multivariate regime switching unobserved components model...

This paper uses several methods to study the interrelationship among Divisia monetary aggregates, prices, and income, allowing for nonstationary, nonlinearities, asymmetries, and time-varying relationships among the series. We propose a multivariate regime switching unobserved components model...

This paper is the first of two from the Monetary Services Indices (MSI) Project at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The second paper, Working Paper 96-008B, summarizes the methodology, construction and data sources for the an extensive new database of monetary services indices, often...

This paper is second of two from the Monetary Services Indices (MSI) Project at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The first paper, Working Paper 96-007B, surveys the microeconomic theory of the aggregation of monetary assets. This paper describe a new database of monetary services indices...