We develop a simple measure of volatility based on extreme-day returns and apply it to market returns from 1885 to 2002. Because returns are not normally distributed, the extreme-day measure, which is distribution free, might provide a better measure of stock market risk than the traditional...

Using different inflation measures produces economically significant differences in both the inflation record and inflation-adjusted stock returns. We introduce a more consistent measure of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate to better measure real returns over 1913-2004, for...

This collection of twelve essays is based on the premise that a better understanding of the economic development process can be gained by studying the history of those countries that have experienced long-term economic success, in this case the United States during the nineteenth century - that...

This article provides a consistent monthly stock price index from January 1871 through 1999. The broadly defined Samp;P Weekly Index is reconstructed from 1918 and carried forward as the Samp;P 500 Composite Index to the present. Cowles's monthly index is improved in order to provide month-end...

This paper uses the supply side approach developed by Ibbotson and Chen to analyze average stock returns for the period 1926-2004. Using the quot;earningsquot; model variation, it is easy to see how each component, including real earnings growth and the P/E ratio, contributed to the average...