This paper explores the impact of simultaneously enforcing the no-arbitrage structure of a Gaussian macro-finance term structure model (MTSM) and accommodating measurement errors on bond yield through filtering on the maximum likelihood estimates of the model-implied conditional distributions of...

This paper quantifies how variation in real economic activity and inflation in the U.S. influenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by...

In any canonical Gaussian dynamic term structure model (GDTSM), the conditional forecasts of the pricing factors are invariant to the imposition of no-arbitrage restrictions. This invariance is maintained even in the presence of a variety of restrictions on the factor structure of bond yields....

This article develops a new family of Gaussian macro-dynamic term structure models (MTSMs) in which bond yields follow a low-dimensional factor structure and the historical distribution of bond yields and macroeconomic variables is characterized by a vector-autoregression with order p 1. Most...