This book explores the period from World War I through the 1920s in order to answer the question: did a financial "bubble" form, and if so, could it have been anticipated? Using new data and over 100 years of stock market returns, real-life models used by investors and modern research, the...

The NYSE boom of the 1920s ended with the infamous crash of October 1929 and subsequent collapse in common stock prices from 1929-1932. Most approaches have suggested an overvaluation of 100%, usually dating from mid-1927 to September 1929.Excessive speculation based on high real earnings growth...

This paper investigates sentiment in the US economy from 1920 to 1934 using digitized articles from the Wall St Journal. We derive a monthly sentiment index and use a ten variable vector error correction model to identify sentiment shocks that are orthogonal to fundamentals. We show the timing...

The modern literature on the US banking crisis in 1931 overlooks the key role played by 'liquidity black holes' and under-pricing in the corporate and government bond markets resulting from the banking system's fire sale of assets. This process weakened the bank lending channel in a continuous...

John Maynard Keynes composed The General Theory as a response to the Great Crash and Great Depression with all their devastating consequences for the US macro economy and financial markets, as well as the rest of the world. The role of expectations his new theory set out has been widely...