Several studies incorporating estimated volatilities into option pricing formulas have appeared in the literature. However, the models described in these studies tend to perform quite poorly in out-of-sample tests. In particular, significant departures from the observed prices can be seen for...

This paper develops a new family of Bayesian semi-parametric models. A particular member of this family is used to model option prices with the aim of improving out-of-sample predictions. A detailed empirical analysis is made for European index call and put options to illustrate the ideas.