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Identifying fiscal multipliers is usually constrained by the absence of a counterfactual scenario. Our new data set allows overcoming this problem by making use of the fact that recommendations under the EU's excessive deficit procedure (EDP) provide both a baseline no-policy-change scenario and...
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will improve slowly in the course of next year. Inflation will remain moderate also because the ECB will tighten monetary …
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will raise key interest rates to the neutral level which should prevail when the output gap is closed and when inflation is … consequence, velocity will return to its trend without an increase in inflation. This implies, however, that the expected slowdown … consequence of the higher than expected rate of inflation. In our forecast, wage increases will average about 3 percent both this …
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year. Still, the inflation rate remains surprisingly high against the background of weak economic activity that has already … recovery in production, the rise in unit labor costs will decelerate considerably, improving the chances that inflation will … labor market will start to improve towards the end of this year only. Inflation will be moderate over the forecast horizon …
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GDP to rise by 1.9 percent. Consumer price inflation will remain moderate and be in line with the target of the ECB. The …
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