Bayesian posterior distributions allow one to investigate the approximate efficiency of a portfolio without specifying the maximum degree of inefficiency a priori. The difference in expected returns between the value-weighted equity portfolio and an efficient portfolio of equal variance has a...

An equilibrium pricing model with time-varying conditional moments of consumption growth is used to analyze the behavior of conditional moments of stock returns for long and short investment horizons. We examine the behavior over time of estimates of the conditional means and variances of...

We develop a method of measuring ex-ante real interest rate using prices of index and nominal bonds. Employing this method and newly available data, we directly test the Fisher hypothesis that the real rate of interest is independent of inflation expectations. We find a negative correlation...

Expected returns over long and short horizons are modeled using two approaches: an equilibrium asset pricing model and a vector autoregression (VAR). Empirical properties of returns that are consistent with the equilibrium model’s implications include (i) an annual "equity premium" of about...

A representative-agent pricing model with time-varying moments of consumption growth is used to analyze implications about means and volatilities of equity returns and interest rates, first-order autocorrelations of equity returns for various investment horizons, and R2’s in projections of...

In a generalized-least-squares (GLS) regression of mean returns on betas, the slope and R-squared are determined uniquely by the mean-variance location of the market index relative to the minimum-variance boundary. In contrast to ordinary-least-squares, GLS gives a zero slope only if the mean...

In many stock exchanges around the world there is a "call" or "batch" transaction at the opening of the trading day. Currently, an essential problem in the application of this trading mechanism is that orders in one security cannot be conditioned on prices of other securities. As a result,...

A Bayesian approach is used to investigate a sample’s information about a portfolio’s degree of inefficiency. With standard diffuse priors, posterior distributions for measures of portfolio inefficiency can concentrate well away from values consistent with efficiency, even when the portfolio...