In this paper, a new applied general equilibrium model is presented, where monopolistic competition under the economy of increasing return to scale is explicitly implemented. The equilibrium data sets are compiled from the 2000 Input-Output Tables released in 2004. Implementing monopolistic...

This paper evaluates density forecasts using micro data from the ESP forecast (ESPF), a monthly survey of Japanese professional forecasters. The ESPF has collected individual density forecasts since June 2008. We employ two approaches, Probability Integral Transform (PIT) and Ranked Probability...

The 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) took note of the Copenhagen Accord inDecember 2009, in which each country was requested to provide her target of reductionin greenhouse gas emissions for 2020 to the United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCC). Japanese Government was...

This paper aims to take stock of four years of ESP forecast experience since its launch in 2004. The consensus performs well, compared to individual forecasters, which is confirmed probably for the first time in Japan. It satisfies the average form of rational expectations hypothesis defined in...