Standard measures of prices are often contaminated by transitory shocks. This has prompted economists to suggest the use of measures of underlying in?ation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed in?ation. Recent work has concentrated on modelling large datasets using...

This paper considers alternative approaches to the analysis of large panel data models in the presence of error cross section dependence. A popular method for modelling such dependence uses a factor error structure. Such models raise new problems for estimation and inference. This paper compares...

The presence of cross-sectionally correlated error terms invalidates much inferential theory of panel data models. Recently work by Pesaran (2006) has suggested a method which makes use of cross-sectional averages to provide valid inference for stationary panel regressions with multifactor error...

Standard measures of prices are often contaminated by transitory shocks. This has prompted economists to suggest the use of measures of underlying inflation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed inflation. Recent work has concentrated on modelling large datasets using...

Unemployment, firm Dynamics, and the Business CyclTime variation is a fundamental problem in statistical and econometric analysis of macroeconomic and financial data. Recently there has been considerable focus on developing econometric modelling that enables stochastic structural change in model...

The paper provides a proof of consistency of the ridge estimator for regressions where the number of regressors tends to infinity. Such result is obtained without assuming a factor structure. A Monte Carlo study suggests that shrinkage autoregressive models can lead to very substantial...

This paper introduces a new model of structural breaks which assumes that structural breaks are driven by large economic shocks. The model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic and it can be used to investigate the impact of large economic shocks on the stability of...

The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance with the most promising existing alternatives, namely, factor models, large scale...

The presence of cross-sectionally correlated error terms invalidates much inferential theory of panel data models. Recently work by Pesaran (2006) has suggested a method which makes use of cross-sectional averages to provide valid inference for stationary panel regressions with multifactor error...

This paper applies a new model of structural breaks developed by Kapetanios and Tzavalis (2004) to investigate if there exist structural changes in the mean reversion parameter of US macroeconomic series. Ignoring such type of breaks may lead to spurious evidence of unit roots in the...