This paper employes a parametric model of structural breaks in the mean of stock returns which allows them to be endogenously driven by large positive or negative stock market return shocks. These shocks can be taken to reflect important market announcements, monetary policy regime shifts and/or...

Interest in the interface of nonstationarity and nonlinearity has been increasing in the econometric literature. This paper provides a formal method of testing for nonstationary long memory against the alternative of particular forms of nonlinerarity. The nonlinear models we consider are ESTAR...

The persistence properties of economic time series has been a primary object of investigation in a variety of guises since the early days of econometrics. This paper suggests investigating the persistence of processes conditioning on their history. In particular we suggest that examining the...

Interest in the interface of nonstationarity and nonlinearity has been increasing in the econometric literature. The motivation for this development maybe be traced to the perceived possibility that processes following nonlinear models maybe mistakenly taken to be unit root or long-memory...

This paper presents a new hierarchical methodology for estimating multi factor dynamic asset pricing models. The approach is loosely based on the sequential approach of Fama and MacBeth (1973). However, the hierarchical method uses very flexible bandwidth selection methods in kernel weighted...

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a...

The persistence properties of economic time series has been a primary object of investigation in a variety of guises since the early days of econometrics. This paper suggests investigating the persistence of processes conditioning on their history. In particular we suggest that examining the...

This paper constructs tests for the presence of nonlinearity of unknown form in addition to a fractionally integrated, long memory component in a time series process. The tests are based on artificial neural network structures and do not restrict the parametric form of the nonlinearity. The...