I hypothesize that the price spike and collapse of 2007-2008 are driven by both changes in both market fundamentals and speculative pressures. Contrary to arguments for a demand shock, I hypothesize that prices rise sharply in 2007-2008 because ongoing growth in Chinese oil demand runs into a...

We postulate a direct role for energy prices in the 2008 financial crisis. Rising energy prices constrain consumer budgets and thereby raise mortgage delinquency rates. This hypothesis is tested by estimating a quarterly cointegrating vector autoregressive (CVAR) model that seeks to quantify the...

We estimate a model that accounts for both climatic and social determinants of corn yield in the United States. Climate variables are specified for periods that correspond to phenological stages of development. Social determinants include market conditions, technical factors, scale of...

The economic incentives for conversion to pasture in Mato Grosso Brazil are investigated using pastureland rents. Pastureland rents are estimated from physical and geographic determinants, and verified by predicting the location of conversion to pasture between 2001 and 2004. Results indicate...

We extend the analysis of causal relations between trader positions and oil prices and the process of price discovery by estimating a cointegrating vector autoregression (CVAR) model that expands the cash-and-carry relation between spot and futures prices to quantify long- and short-run...

We revisit statistical estimates for the relation between weather and energy consumption in Massachusetts using times series for heating degree hours that are calculated from hourly data with different set points and set backs. Using hourly values to calculate heating degree hours supports...

We examine the relation among daily returns to crude oil prices, equity prices, and commodity markets by modifying previous efforts in two important ways; expanding the model to include the equity price for an oil-producing firm, ConocoPhillips, which ameliorates omitted variable bias and...

I use the quality and quantity of energy flows to interpret economic, social, and political changes in the US and Former Soviet Union. The economic successes of both the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the US reflect an abundant supply of high quality energy. This abundance ended in the 1970s in...

The rapid rise in the price of crude oil between 2004 and the summer of 2006 are the subject of debate. This paper investigates the factors that might have contributed to the oil price increase in addition to demand and supply for crude oil, by expanding a model for crude oil prices to include...

Although there is a general consensus that the market is unified, here we quantify the factors that create regions by analyzing the price relation between 33 crude oils. ADF statistics indicate that 447 of the 528 crude oil pairings cointegrate; 81 do not. The presence/absence of cointegration is...