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Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759
Recent research has shown that recursive real-time VAR forecasts of the real price of oil tend to be more accurate than … benefits of allowing for time variation in VAR model parameters and of constructing forecast combinations. We conclude that … quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed VAR models estimated on monthly data generate the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083683
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431276
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE mod- els is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010435454
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418016
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437938
Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models were introduced in 1980 as an alternative to traditional large … of the structural VAR methodology often were atheoretical in that users paid insufficient attention to the conditions … identifying assumptions the structural VAR literature has continuously evolved since the 1980s. This survey traces the evolution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009201117
An important preliminary step in impulse response analysis is to select the vector autoregressive (VAR) lag order from …-squared error of the implied impulse response estimates. We conclude that for monthly VAR models, the Akaike Information Criterion … quarterly VAR models, the Hannan-Quinn Criterion (HQC) appears to be the most accurate criterion with the exception of sample …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123979
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145457
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE mod- els is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011097611