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Many questions of economic interest in structural VAR analysis involve estimates of multiple impulse response functions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421682
Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically imposed in estimating sign-identified VAR … distribution and show that there is no evidence that typical sign-identified VAR models estimated using conventional priors tend to … alternative Bayesian approach to estimating sign-identified VAR models proposed by Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) suffers from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661969
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418016
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437938
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287215
accuracy. The most accurate individual model is a VAR(1) model for real retail gasoline and Brent crude oil prices. Even …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566
It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411360
Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is based on the premise that demand for crude oil derives...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781115
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452269