forecast combinations to vary across forecast horizons. While the latter approach is not always more accurate than selecting … mean-squared prediction error of real-time pooled forecasts is between 3% and 29% lower than that of the no-change forecast … as well as quarterly forecasts. We illustrate how forecast pooling may be used to produce real-time forecasts of the real …

gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures markets … price forecast to alternative assumptions about future demand and supply conditions? How does one quantify risks associated …

into gains in out-of-sample forecast accuracy compared with conventional no-change forecasts? How useful are oil futures … baseline oil price forecast to alternative assumptions about future oil demand and oil supply conditions? How does one quantify …

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …