the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

forecast combinations to vary across forecast horizons. While the latter approach is not always more accurate than selecting … mean-squared prediction error of real-time pooled forecasts is between 3% and 29% lower than that of the no-change forecast … as well as quarterly forecasts. We illustrate how forecast pooling may be used to produce real-time forecasts of the real …

no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and … evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …