information. We explore several new forecasting approaches for the U.S. retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with … the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model … forecast combinations to vary across forecast horizons. While the latter approach is not always more accurate than selecting … the single most accurate forecasting model by horizon, its accuracy can be shown to be much more stable over time. The …

information. We explore a range of new forecasting approaches for the retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with the … no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and … evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …