We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need … to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model … specifications? Are real and nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate …

crude oil for horizons up to two years, which are widely used by practitioners. Traditionally, such out-of-sample forecasts …-time econometric oil price forecasting models. We investigate the merits of constructing combinations of six such models. Forecast … combinations have received little attention in the oil price forecasting literature to date. We demonstrate that over the last 20 …

long-standing problem of how to estimate the market expectation of the price of crude oil. We provide a new measure of oil … has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for … the measurement of oil price shocks. …

of the price of crude oil. We provide a new measure of oil price expectations that is considerably more accurate than the … energy-intensive durables, for the debate on speculation in oil markets, and for oil price forecasting. …

A series of recent articles has called into question the validity of VAR models of the global market for crude oil …. These studies seek to replace existing oil market models by structural VAR models of their own based on different data … literature that oil demand shocks are a more important determinant of oil price fluctuations than oil supply shocks. Substantial …

Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel … prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to the cost of …-trip voyage rates. Oil exports from the Arabian Gulf also decline, reflecting lower demand for VLCCs. Positive utilization shocks …