Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - In: Handbook of Economic Forecasting : volume 2, part A, (pp. 427-507). 2013
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need … to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model … specifications? Are real and nominal oil prices predictable based on macroeconomic aggregates? Does this predictability translate …