While Perron and Wada's (2009) maximum likelihood estimation approach suggests that postwar U.S. real GDP follows a trend stationary process (TSP), our Bayesian approach based on the same model and the same sample suggests that it follows a difference stationary process (DSP). We first show...

We investigate the behavior of the long-run U.S./U.K. real exchange rate from 1885 to 1995. Our long-run real exchange rate series is derived from an unobserved components model which divides the real exchange rate into permanent and transitory components. The transitory component is modeled as...

We investigate the behavior of the long-run U.S./U.K. real exchange rate from 1885 to 1995. Our long-run real exchange rate series is derived from an unobserved components model which divides the real exchange rate into permanent and transitory components. The transitory component is modeled as...

The paper estimates a model for the real U.S./U.K. exchange rate. The Kalman filter is used to identify a permanent and transitory component. We find the variance of the transitory component shifts among three states according to a Markov-switching process. The model is estimated by Gibbs...