Empirical estimations of the micro-founded New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) using rational inflation expectation proxies have often found that the output gap is an invalid measure of inflation pressure. This paper investigates the empirical success of the NKPC in explaining US inflation when...

This paper investigates the nature of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) using the flexible approach to nonlinear inference. We find that while there is significant evidence of nonlinearity for the period to 1979, there is little such evidence for the...

We extend the vector autoregression (VAR) based expectations hypothesis (EH) test of term structure, considered in Bekaert & Hodrick (2001), B&H thereafter, using recent developments in bootstrap literature. Modifications include the use of wild bootstrap to allow for conditional...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that inflation inertia, rather than inflation expectations, dominate the dynamics of...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that backward-looking inflation inertia dominates the dynamics of the short-run aggregate...

This paper investigates the empirical success of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in explaining US inflation when observed measures of inflation expectations are used in conjunction with the output gap. The paper contributes to the literature by addressing the important problem of serial...

Estimating the micro-founded New Keynesian Phillips Curve using rational inflation expectation proxies has often found that the output gap is not a valid measure of inflation pressure. This paper investigates the empirical success of the NKPC in explaining US inflation, using observed measures...