We extend Kilian's (2009) framework to identify an exogenous shock arising from changes in financial market conditions and examine the consequent macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes. We find that a financial shock is a key determinant of oil prices and its macroeconomic impact is as...

In the wake of the global financial crisis, leading industrialized countries have managed to show only a gradual recovery, while East Asian economies have surged ahead. In particular, China achieved growth in excess of 10% in 2010 and is expected to continue growing at a rapid pace. It appears...

This paper discusses the time-varying degree of flexibility in exchange rate regimes and assesses the extent to which securities markets are integrated in East Asia. The dynamic conditional correlation model developed by Engle (2002) is used to analyze the time-varying characteristics of the...

We propose a novel approach that combines random forests and the wavelet transform to model the prediction of currency crises. Our classification model of random forests, built using both standard predictors and wavelet predictors, and obtained from the wavelet transform, achieves a demonstrably...

This paper proposes a novel approach, based on convolutional neural network (CNN) models, that forecasts the short-term crude oil futures prices with good performance. In our study, we confirm that artificial intelligence (AI)-based deep-learning approaches can provide more accurate forecasts of...

This study analyzes the importance of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Co-Location dataset (TSE Co-Location dataset) to forecast the realized volatility (RV) of Tokyo stock price index futures. The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is a popular linear regression model used to forecast RV. This...

Key Features:The topic, i.e., Rebalancing Demand in East Asia is a hot issue key to understanding the future development of East AsiaThis volume provides a comprehensive overview with respect to the topic of Rebalancing Demand in East AsiaThis book reviews the current situation of each topic, so...