Although some think it's too soon to worry about high inflation, there are risks for that to happen in the medium term. Besides the obvious risks, a new bubble might be brewing in asset prices as investors search for higher returns, and the gap between actual output and potential output might be...

The FOMC’s “mandate-consistent inflation rate” is generally judged to be “about 2 percent or a bit below.”

Despite pockets of strength, the U.S. economy continues to struggle to build consistent momentum. Real GDP growth rebounded in the first quarter of 2013 after ending 2012 on a relatively weak note.

Decision makers, both public and private, use forecasts of economic growth and inflation to make plans and implement policies. In many situations, reasonably good forecasts can be made with simple rules of thumb that are extrapolations of a single data series. In principle, information about...

This article analyzes how announced surprises in monetary policy actions and macroeconomic data releases affect the average rate of inflation that economic agents expect to prevail over the 10-year period following the surprise. The analysis also addresses the effect of Federal Reserve...