It has been said that, "forecasters may never be right, but they are never in doubt." Not with a good model by their side, that is.

In the wake of the crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet increased from the historical 6 percent of GDP to more than 20 percent. As plans are made to return to normal monetary policy, it’s important to be aware of the challenges and potential pitfalls of this transition.

Forecasting is a daunting challenge for business economists and policymakers, often made more difficult by pervasive uncertainty. No such uncertainty is more difficult than projecting the reaction of policymakers to major shifts in the economy. We explore the process by which the FOMC came to...

Deciding to undertake a series of tightening actions present unique challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers. These challenges are both political and economic. Using a variety of economic and financial market metrics, this article examines how the economy and financial markets evolved in...

Baby boomers will start retiring in droves in January. Coupled with the slowdown in productivity and the near-zero saving rate, growth in GDP could fall to levels not seen in 25 years.