A new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the single source of error approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates...

We discuss and compare measures of accuracy of univariate time series forecasts. The methods used in the M-competition and the M3-competition, and many of the measures recommended by previous authors on this topic, are found to be inadequate, and many of them are degenerate in commonly occurring...

Statistical process control (SPC) has evolved beyond its classical applications in manufacturing to monitoring economic and social phenomena. This extension requires consideration of autocorrelated and possibly non-stationary time series. Less attention has been paid to the possibility that the...

Exponential smoothing is often used to forecast lead-time demand for inventory control. In this paper, formulae are provided for calculating means and variances of lead-time demand for a wide variety of exponential smoothing methods. A feature of many of the formulae is that variances, as well...

A new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the innovations approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates may be...

Statistical process control (SPC) has evolved beyond its classical applications in manufacturing to monitoring economic and social phenomena. This extension has required the consideration of autocorrelated and possibly non-stationary time series. Less attention has been paid to the possibility...