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This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the … microstructure noise has an adverse effect on both spot variance estimation and jump detection. In our approach we can analyze high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379469
dimensionality. The relatively simple structure of the model leads to simple computations for the estimation of parameters and signal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220280
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010494787
We consider a general class of observation-driven models with exogenous regressors for double bounded data that are based on the beta distribution. We obtain a stationary and ergodic beta observation-driven process subject to a contraction condition on the stochastic dynamic model equation. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843003
This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014075576
This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364
We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456728
We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012994016
The financial cycle captures systematic patterns in the financial system and is closely related to the concept of procyclicality of systemic risk. This paper investigates the characteristics of financial cycles using a multivariate model-based filter. We extract cycles using an unobserved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000400
We introduce a dynamic Skellam model that measures stochastic volatility from high-frequency tick-by-tick discrete stock price changes. The likelihood function for our model is analytically intractable and requires Monte Carlo integration methods for its numerical evaluation. The proposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011295740