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accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an … volatility processes and mixture distributions for the irregular components and the common cycle disturbances enable us to … that time-varying volatility is only present in the a selection of idiosyncratic components while the coefficients driving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic volatility process. We develop a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method to obtain … varying size. Based on the new modelling framework and the associated estimation technique, we find remarkable changes in the … variance, in the order of integration, in the short memory characteristics and in the volatility of volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822
subject to stochastic volatility. It enables the disentanglement of dynamic structures in both the mean and the variance of … the observed time series. We develop a simulated maximum likelihood estimation method based on importance sampling and … increased during the 2008 financial crisis while it has recently returned to its pre-crisis level. The extracted volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809984
This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the … microstructure noise has an adverse effect on both spot variance estimation and jump detection. In our approach we can analyze high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379469
We introduce a dynamic Skellam model that measures stochastic volatility from high-frequency tick-by-tick discrete … series per day varies from 1000 to 10,000. Complexities in the intraday dynamics of volatility and in the frequency of trades … intraday volatility shows that the dynamic modified Skellam model provides accurate forecasts compared to alternative modeling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011295740
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720703
To gain insights in the current status of the economy, macroeconomic time series are often decomposed into trend, cycle and irregular components. This can be done by nonparametric band-pass filtering methods in the frequency domain or by model-based decompositions based on autoregressive moving...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346480
considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on thesimultaneous estimation of parameters …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327834