Showing 1 - 10 of 339
forecasting, however it is robust in the sense that it provides a more accurate estimation of the predictive density in the region …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057160
for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … Volatility (SV) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models which are both extended to include … the intraday volatility measure. For forecasting horizons ranging from one day to one week the most accurate out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
volatility forecasting. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of historical volatility (extracted from daily return … explanatory variables for volatility. The main focus is on forecasting the daily variability of the Standard & Poor's 100 stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334848
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303314
series forecasting, however it is robust in the sense that it provides a more accurate estimation of the predictive density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012114810
series forecasting, however it is robust in the sense that it provides a more accurate estimation of the predictive density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864459
surface types. We finally show that our proposed model can also be effective in forecasting. We provide evidence that our … model significantly outperforms existing models in the forecasting of tennis match results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794344
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
We study the performance of alternative methods for calculating in-sample confidence and out of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters. The in-sample bands reflect parameter uncertainty only. The out-of-sample bands reflect both parameter uncertainty and innovation uncertainty. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011295703
We study the performance of alternative methods for calculating in-sample confidence and out of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters. The in-sample bands reflect parameter uncertainty only. The out-of-sample bands reflect both parameter uncertainty and innovation uncertainty. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019586