Showing 1 - 10 of 104
improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416341
We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250990
generally, to observation-driven models, which include well-known models for conditional volatility. To overcome the problem of … Monte Carlo study and an empirical study concerning the measurement of conditional volatility from financial returns data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794421
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000961559
A major aim of recent empirical modelling of the business cycle isto identify the relative importance of aggregate supply and demandshocks. Supply or technology shocks are associated with permanent(structural) effects on economic activity whereas demand shocks arerelated to temporary (cyclical)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336862
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001594753
We characterize the dynamic properties of Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) processes by identifying regions of the parameter space that imply stationarity and ergodicity. We show how these regions are affected by the choice of parameterization and scaling, which are key features of GAS...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326396
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000953379
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001246644