This paper considers how an investor in the foreign exchange market can exploit predictive information by means of flexible Bayesian inference. Using a variety of different vector autoregressive models, the investor is able, each period, to revise past predictive mistakes and learn about...

This paper considers how an investor in foreign exchange markets might exploit predictive information in macroeconomic fundamentals by allowing for switching between multivariate time series regression models. These models are chosen to reflect a wide array of established empirical and...

This paper studies the co-movement of global yield curve dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. Our data-driven approach is able to pin down the drivers of yield curve dynamics and produce plausible term premium estimates. We reveal the...

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...

This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been...

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting in ation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions for forecasting in ation with the ability of quantile regression to...

This paper extends the current literature which questions the stability of the monetary transmission mechanism, by proposing a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The VAR coefficients and error covariances may change...

This paper studies the transmission of monetary shocks to state unemployment rates, within a novel structural factor-augmented VAR framework with a time-varying propagation mechanism. We find evidence of large heterogeneity over time in the responses of state unemployment rates to monetary...

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the...

This paper considers Bayesian variable selection in regressions with a large number of possibly highly correlated macroeconomic predictors. I show that acknowledging the correlation structure in the predictors can improve forecasts over existing popular Bayesian variable selection algorithms