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Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298739
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How important are spillovers from major emerging markets?
Huidrom, Raju; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2017
more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15.These emerging markets …. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. We provide empirical … from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060228
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Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; Prasad, Eswar - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276108
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Understanding informality
Elgin, Ceyhun; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Yu, Shu - 2021
This paper introduces a comprehensive database of informal economic activity. The database focuses on measures that have strong cross-country and over time coverage: it includes both model-based and survey-based measures of informality and covers more than 160 economies for the period 1990-2018....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628466
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Regionalization vs. Globalization
Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher - 2013
sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500234
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Remittances over the business cycle: Theory and evidence
De, Supriyo; Islamaj, Ergys; Kose, M. Ayhan; Yousefi, … - 2016
This paper examines the behavior of remittances over the business cycle and their potential to act as a stabilizer during periods of high business cycle volatility. Four main findings are reported. First, in theory, the cyclical behavior of remittances depends on the motives to remit. Second,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696298
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The global role of the U.S. economy: Linkages, policies and spillovers
Kose, M. Ayhan; Lakatos, Csilla; Ohnsorge, Franziska; … - 2017
from changes in U.S. growth, monetary and fiscal policies, and uncertainty in its financial markets and economic policies …. Developments in the U.S. economy, the world's largest, have effects far beyond its shores. A surge in U.S. growth could provide a ….S. economic policy could have an appreciably negative effect on global growth prospects. While the United States plays a critical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696319
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Remittances over the business cycle : theory and evidence
De, Supriyo; Islamaj, Ergys; Kose, M. Ayhan; Yousefi, … - 2016
This paper examines the behavior of remittances over the business cycle and their potential to act as a stabilizer during periods of high business cycle volatility. Four main findings are reported. First, in theory, the cyclical behavior of remittances depends on the motives to remit. Second,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453670
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Understanding informality
Elgin, Ceyhun; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Yu, Shu - 2021
This paper introduces a comprehensive database of informal economic activity. The database focuses on measures that have strong cross-country and over time coverage: it includes both model-based and survey-based measures of informality and covers more than 160 economies for the period 1990-2018....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625108
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The global role of the United States and China
Kose, M. Ayhan; Lakatos, Csilla; Ohnsorge, Franziska; … - In: Seoul journal of economics : SJE 33 (2020) 3, pp. 283-305
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294111