Similar Search Results

Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; Prasad, Eswar - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276108

Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2008

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298739

Regionalization vs. Globalization

Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher - 2013

sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500234

Remittances over the business cycle: Theory and evidence

De, Supriyo; Islamaj, Ergys; Kose, M. Ayhan; Yousefi, … - 2016

This paper examines the behavior of remittances over the business cycle and their potential to act as a stabilizer during periods of high business cycle volatility. Four main findings are reported. First, in theory, the cyclical behavior of remittances depends on the motives to remit. Second,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696298

The global role of the U.S. economy: Linkages, policies and spillovers

Kose, M. Ayhan; Lakatos, Csilla; Ohnsorge, Franziska; … - 2017

from changes in U.S. growth, monetary and fiscal policies, and uncertainty in its financial markets and economic policies …. Developments in the U.S. economy, the world's largest, have effects far beyond its shores. A surge in U.S. growth could provide a ….S. economic policy could have an appreciably negative effect on global growth prospects. While the United States plays a critical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696319

How important are spillovers from major emerging markets?

Huidrom, Raju; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2017

more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15.These emerging markets …. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. We provide empirical … from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060228

Understanding informality

Elgin, Ceyhun; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Yu, Shu - 2021

This paper introduces a comprehensive database of informal economic activity. The database focuses on measures that have strong cross-country and over time coverage: it includes both model-based and survey-based measures of informality and covers more than 160 economies for the period 1990-2018....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628466

The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics

Kose, M. Ayhan; Yi, Kei-Mu - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2002

Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420492

Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?

Blankenau, William; Kose, M. Ayhan; Yi, Kei-Mu - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 1999

While the world real interest rate is potentially an important mechanism for transmitting international shocks to small open economies, much of the recent quantitative research that studies this mechanism concludes that it has little effect on output, investment, and net exports. We reexamine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420513

Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?

Kose, M. Ayhan; Yi, Kei-Mu - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - 2005

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005389719