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Growing apart or moving together? : synchronization of informal and formal economy cycles
Elgin, Ceyhun; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Yu, Shu - 2021
We study the degree of synchronization between formal- and informal-economy business cycles. Using a comprehensive database of informal activity that covers a wide range of informality measures from almost 160 countries over the 1990-2018 period, we report two major results. First, fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625110
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610
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Global recessions
Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka; Terrones, Marco E. - 2020
, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by … crisis, advanced economies felt the brunt of the recession. The subsequent expansion has been the weakest in the post … emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well and delivered a stronger recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159612
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020 - This version: February 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170616
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How important are spillovers from major emerging markets?
Huidrom, Raju; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2017
The seven largest emerging market economies -China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey- constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15.These emerging markets, which we call EM7,are also closely integrated with other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011696360
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Regionalization vs. globalization
Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009703626
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Inflation during the pandemic: what happened? what is next?
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2021
) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584054
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Can World Real Interest Rates Explain Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy?
Blankenau, William F. - 2006
While the world real interest rate is potentially an important mechanism for transmitting international shocks to small open economies, much of the recent quantitative research that studies this mechanism concludes that it has little effect on output, investment, and net exports. We reexamine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012735713
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Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
Ha, Jongrim - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840446
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Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
Ha, Jongrim - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841432