Recent work in the growth literature has provided various explanations for transition delays and the great divergence. This paper provides empirical support for one theory of transition delays: initial land inequality. Our analysis is designed to elucidate the channels via which land inequality...

This paper introduces the structural threshold regression model that allows for an endogeneous threshold variable as well as for endogenous regressors. This model provides a parsimonious way of modeling nonlinearities and has many potential applications in economics and finance. Our framework...

We introduce easy to implement regression-based methods for predicting quarterly real economic activity that use daily financial data and rely on forecast combinations of MIDAS regressions. Our analysis is designed to elucidate the value of daily information and provide real-time forecast...

In this paper we uncover growth volatility regimes and identify their robust determinants using a large international panel of countries. In doing so we propose a novel empirical methodology that allows us to simultaneously deal with two key elements of model uncertainty, namely theory...

In this paper we uncover growth volatility regimes and identify their robust determinants using a large international panel of countries. In doing so we propose a novel empirical methodology that allows us to simultaneously deal with two key elements of model uncertainty, namely theory...

We employ a structural threshold regression methodology to investigate the heterogeneous effects of debt on growth using public debt as a threshold variable as well as several other plausible variables. Our methodology allows us to address three sources of model uncertainty that characterize...

This paper revisits the influential work by Chetty, Hendren, Kline, and Saez (2014) who attempt to explain the variation in intergenerational mobility across commuter zones in the US (i.e., spatial mobility) using nine classes of variables. We employ Bayesian model averaging methods that allow...

This paper extends the simple threshold regression framework of Hansen (2000) and Caner and Hansen (2004) to allow for endogeneity of the threshold variable. We develop a concentrated least squares estimator of the threshold parameter based on an inverse Mills ratio bias correction. We show that...

This paper extends the simple threshold regression framework of Hansen (2000) and Caner and Hansen (2004) to allow for endogeneity of the threshold variable. We develop a concentrated two-stage least squares (C2SLS) estimator of the threshold parameter that is based on an inverse Mills ratio...