Alfred Cowles' (1934) test of the Dow Theory apparently provided strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. In this paper, we review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion -- that the Dow Theory, as applied...

I analyze the behavior of a group of investment newsletters that provide explicit recommendations about the fractions of investment holding that should be allocated to risky and riskless asset classes. I find that the group of newsletters exhibit few types of simple behaviors and a majority of...

This study analyzes the behavior and performance of 353 investment newsletters that make asset allocation recommendations during a period covering more than 21 years (June 1980 - November 2001). Newsletters change their asset mix between equity and cash using relatively simple rules that are...

This study examines whether supportive work environments can reduce or eliminate gender-based performance differences even in highly competitive Wall Street careers. Using a large sample of over 1.5 million forecasts issued by more than 9,000 sell-side equity analysts spanning more than two...

We study the forecasting behavior of minority sell-side equity analysts. Distinct from the impact of cultural and geographic diversity, we demonstrate that, although minority analyst forecasts have lower accuracy, consistency in their forecasts generates stronger correlation between the...

We examine the effect of behavioral biases on the mutual fund choices of a large sample of U.S. discount brokerage investors using new measures of attention to news, tax awareness, and fund-level familiarity bias, in addition to behavioral and demographic characteristics of earlier studies....

This paper investigates whether there are systematic differences between the forecasting style and abilities of female and male analysts, and whether market participants recognize these differences. My key conjecture is that only female analysts with superior forecasting abilities enter the...

We study stock holdings and trading behavior of more than 60,000 households and find evidence consistent with dividend clienteles. Retail investor stock holdings indicate a preference for dividend yield that increases with age and decreases with income, consistent with age and tax clienteles,...

The recent behavioral literature has shown that individual investors hold concentrated portfolios, trade excessively, and exhibit a preference for local stocks. These results are puzzling because in all three instances portfolio distortions could reflect either an informational advantage or...

Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001) document a positive trend in idiosyncratic volatility during the 1962 to 1997 period. We show that this trend completely reverses itself by 2007, falling below pre-1990s levels. Furthermore, we show that the reversal is concentrated among firms with low...