We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data,...

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

Abstract Comparative ex-ante prediction experiments over expanding subsamples are a popular tool for the task of selecting the best forecasting model class in finite samples of practical relevance. Flanking such a horse race by predictive-accuracy tests, such as the test by Diebold and Mariano...