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This paper focuses on a number of newly proposed on-line forecast combination algorithms in Sancetta (2010), Yang (2004 …
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We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …
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growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …
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Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058