Purpose: This research examines how macroeconomic variables can precisely predict bull/bear stock markets in China and Taiwan. Design/methodology/approach: This paper adopts a two-state Markov switching model to characterize...

This research examines whether Google search volume index (GSVI), a proxy of investor attention, can predict the excess returns and abnormal trading volumes of TPEx 50 index constituents. It also explores the motive underlying GSVI based on positive or negative shocks to stock prices. The...