This paper studies the credibility and transparency of monetary policy. We characterize each FOMC meeting as a decision to ease, maintain, or tighten monetary policy and model decisions with ordered probit reaction functions. Policy is credible if the estimated models are significant functions...

This paper examines whether there is a systematic relationship between FOMC decisions and publicly available data that would potentially allow the public to anticipate FOMC policy changes. We characterize each FOMC decision as a move to tighten, ease, or leave policy unchanged and use ordered...